The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said that the chances of an El Niño happening during the first quarter of 2019 has weakened.
According to Annaliza Solis, head of the PAGASA – Climate and Prediction Bureau, Tropical Depression Usman allowed areas to recover from a dry spell or a dried condition, a precursor for El Niño.
However, Solis clarified that the chance of an El Niño happening during the first four months of 2019 has not yet disappeared, and that they can only be certain once the months of January and February have passed.
“Kapag hindi na-sustain yung pagkakaroon ng El Niño by end of January up to February, maliit na ang tsansa na matuloy ang El Nino sa first quarter ng 2019,” Solis said during DZRH’s Isyu.
“Kung ma-susustain yung kanyang tuloy-tuloy na pag-init at magkaroon ng response sa ating kalangitan, sa ating atmosphere, ito’y makakapag-bigay sa atin kung masusustain yung possibleng epekto ng El Niño,” Solis explained.
The PAGASA official also mentioned that the country will continue to experience cold weather until February due to the effects of the northeast monsoon.
If El Niño does happen, Solis said that the Western Visayas, and Western Mindanao could experience dry spells. She also added that the Ilocos Region currently experiences drought.